IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Second

IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Second-Order Draft Despite the exhortation: "PLEASE DO NOT CITE, QUOTE, OR DISTRIBUTE THE DRAFT REPORT" we feel we have been left with no choice by the bizarre actions of the IPCC. What kind of "science" distributes a summary and then withholds the underlying report for a further three months editing to make it concur with the already distributed summary? Don't believe it? Neither did we but the plain language statement of intent is here (search for "grammatical" -- it's on page 4 of 15) and the original IPCC procedures document is (was) here -- in their words: "Changes (other than grammatical or minor editorial changes) made after acceptance by the Working Group or the Panel shall be those necessary to ensure consistency with the Summary for Policymakers or the Overview Chapter." Surely science has not degenerated to the point that research must now conform to pre-released summaries, even in the purely political IPCC. If climate change is supposed to be such an urgent problem then what possible justification can there be for hiding the supporting evidence? We can think of none and, after some agonizing (we most assuredly do not want the draft review process to become any more secretive than it already is), we have decided to make the draft publicly available so that you can decide for yourselves whether the much-leaked hysterics of recent weeks truly represent the best available research and opinion. Reluctantly then, here is the draft form AR4 WG1 contribution:
Section	Full Chapter, Text & Figures [PDF]	Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF]	Supporting Materials
Summary for Policymakers	Full Chapter, Text & Figures [PDF]
Technical Summary		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF] Part 1 Part 2
1. Historical Overview of Climate Change Science Executive Summary Introduction Progress in Observations Progress in Understanding of Radiative Forcing, Processes, and Coupling Progress in Climate Modelling Advances in Understanding Uncertainties Appendix: Glossary of Terms		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF]
2. Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing Executive Summary Introduction Definition and Utility of Radiative Forcing Recent Changes in Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Direct and Indirect Radiative Forcing Radiative Forcing due to Land Use Changes Contrails and Aircraft-Induced Cirrus Variability in Solar and Volcanic Radiative Forcing Synthesis of Radiative Forcing Factors GWPs and Other Metrics for Comparing Different Emissions Appendix: Techniques, Error Estimation, and Measurement Systems		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDFs] Part 1 Part 2
3. Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change Executive Summary Introduction Changes in Surface Climate Changes in the Free Atmosphere Changes in Atmospheric Circulation Patterns of Variability Changes in the Tropics and Sub-Tropics Extra-Tropical Changes Changes in Extreme Events Synthesis: Consistency across Observations Appendix: Techniques, Error Estimation, and Measurement Systems		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF] Part 1 Part 2
4. Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground Executive Summary Introduction Changes in Snow Cover and Albedo Sea Ice Extent and Thickness Changes Changes in Glaciers and Small Ice Caps Changes and Stability of Ice Shelves Changes and Stability of Ice Sheets Changes in Frozen Ground Appendix: Techniques, Error Estimation, and Measurement Systems		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF]
5. Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level Executive Summary Introduction Changes in Ocean Salinity, Temperature, Heat Uptake, and Heat Content Biogeochemical Tracers Changes in Ocean Circulation and Water Mass Formation Sea Level: Global and Regional Changes Appendix: Techniques, Error Estimation, and Measurement Systems		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF]
6. Paleoclimate Executive Summary Introduction Proxy Methods and their Uncertainty Inferred Past Climate System Change Abrupt Climate Change Paleo-Environmental Model Evaluation and Sensitivity Synthesis: Insights into Climate System Behavior Appendix: Guide to the Use of Paleoclimatic Information.		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF] Part 1 Part 2
7. Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry Executive Summary Introduction to Biogeochemical Cycles The Carbon Cycle and the Climate System Global Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Change Air Quality and Climate Change Aerosols and Climate Change The Changing Land Surface and Climate Synthesis: Interactions Among Cycles and Processes		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF] Part 1 Part 2
8. Climate Models and their Evaluation Executive Summary Advances in Modeling Evaluation of Contemporary Climate as Simulated by Coupled Global Models Evaluation of Large Scale Climate Variability as Simulated by Coupled Global Models Evaluation of the Key Relevant Processes as Simulated by Coupled Global Models Model Simulations of Extremes Climate Sensitivity Evaluation of Model Simulations of Thresholds and Abrupt Events Representing the Global System With Simpler Models		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF]	Supporting materials. Available formats: View online (immediate access via browser). zip [15.7 Mb] tar [7.4 Mb] Stuffit [15.8 Mb]
9. Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Executive Summary Introduction Radiative Forcing and Climate Response Seasonal-to-Interannual Predictions of Climate Change and their Reliability Understanding Pre-Industrial Climate Change Understanding Climate Change During the Instrumental Era Appendix: Methods used to assess predictability Appendix: Methods used to detect externally forced signals (detection/attribution) Appendix: Methods used to assess uncertainty		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF] Part 1 Part 2
10. Global Climate Projections Executive Summary Introduction Projected Radiative Forcing Timescales of Response Climate Change to 2100 and Beyond Sea Level Projections Scenarios and Simple Models Uncertainties in Global Model Projections		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF] Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5	Supporting materials. Two basic viewing alternatives: 1. View online (immediate access via browser). 2.Download compressed files. Available in three formats: zip [107.4 Mb] tar [107.4 Mb] Stuffit [89.0 Mb]
11. Regional Climate Projections Executive Summary Introduction Evaluation of Regionalization Methods Alternative Simple Methods Projections of Regional Climate Changes Small Islands Uncertainties in Regional Projections		Text only [PDF]	Figures only [PDF] Part 1 Part 2	Supporting materials. Available formats: View online (immediate access via browser). zip [7.4 Mb] tar [7.4 Mb] Stuffit [7.4 Mb]
Glossary. The glossary is provided to facilitate the review process but is not itself subject to review. It defines some specific terms as the lead authors intend them to be interpreted in the context of this report. Reviewers may comment on usage of a glossary term citing the specific page and line numbers at the point in the report where the term is used.

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