Chapter 8 Supplementary Material
 

These figures are supplementary material cited in chapter 8, subsection 3. They contain additional analysis that, due to space limitations, could not be shown in the main report. There are a number of places in the text where the reader is encouraged to view these supplementary figures. The results presented here support the points made in the report.

Many of the figures present results from individual models, which are the basis for the construction of the multi-model averages and model spreads shown in section 8.3. For some ocean variables, figures are also included that present results averaged over the individual ocean basins (Atlantic, Pacific plus Indian Oceans). For ocean studies, this is often a more revealing way of displaying results, rather than showing the zonal mean over all basins combined.

Note that a few errors in model output are likely to be identified before the next draft of this report is prepared, so some corrections to what is shown here should be expected.  Likewise additional model output may be made available, so some of the "missing" panels or curves in these plots can be expected to be added.

Supplementary Figures for Section 8.3

S3.1) Surface temperature maps in support of Figure 8.3.1:
Each page shows:
  • Upper left panel:  Observed annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) climatology and, over land, surface air temperature climatology (°C).
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean error (°C), simulated minus observed.
  • Upper right panel:  Root-mean-square model error (°C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
  • All other panels:  Individual model errors (°C), simulated minus observed.
The observations are from the CRU merged SST and surface air temperature dataset for the period 1961-1990 (Jones et al., 1999), and the model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.1_tasm_diff.pdf

 

S3.2) Surface temperature standard deviation maps in support of Figure 8.3.2:
Each page shows:
  • Upper left panel: Observed standard deviation of  sea surface temperature (SST) and, over land, surface air temperature (°C), computed over the climatological monthly mean annual cycle.
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean error (°C), simulated minus observed.
  • Upper right panel:  Root-mean-square model error (°C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
  • All other panels:  Individual model errors (°C), simulated minus observed.
The observations are from the CRU merged SST and surface air temperature dataset for the period 1961-1990 (Jones et al., 1999), and the model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.2_tasm_std_diff.pdf

 

S3.3) Diurnal range of surface air temperature, averaged zonally over land areas and averaged annually.  The observations are from the CRU surface air temperature dataset for the period 1961-1990 (New et al., 1999), and the model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.  Results are not shown where observations are sparse (e.g., Antarctica).

File:  S8.3.3_dtr_full_spaghetti.pdf

 

S3.4) Zonal mean air temperature cross-sections:
Each page shows:
  • Upper left panel:  Observed annual-mean air temperature climatology (K), averaged zonally.
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean error (K), simulated minus observed.
  • Upper right panel:  Root-mean-square model error (K), based on all available IPCC model simulations  (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
  • All other panels:  Individual model errors (K), simulated minus observed.
The observational estimate is from the 40-year European Reanalysis (ERA40, Uppala et al., 2005) based on observations over the period 1980-1999, and the model results are from the same period of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.4_ta_diff.pdf

 

S3.5) Annual-mean, zonally-averaged shortwave radiation scattered and reflected to space. The observational estimates are from radiometers flown on satellites during the period 1985-1989 (ERBE, Barkstrom et al., 1989).  The model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.5_rsut_full_spaghetti.pdf

 

S3.6)  Annual-mean, zonally-averaged outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere.  The observational estimates are from radiometers flown on satellites during the period 1985-1989 (ERBE, Barkstrom et al., 1989), and the model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.6_rlut_full_spaghetti.pdf

 

S3.7) Total energy transport by the oceans and the atmosphere, averaged zonally and over time, as implied by the net flux of radiation at the top of the atmosphere.  The observational estimates are from radiometers flown on satellites during the period 1985-1989 (ERBE, Barkstrom et al., 1989).  The model results are from years 1980-1999 of climate of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.7_implied_total_trans.pdf

 

S3.8) Precipitation rate maps in support of Figure 8.3.4:
Each page shows:
  • Upper left panel:  Observed annual-mean precipitation rate climatology (mm/day).
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean of the annual-mean precipitation rate climatology (mm/day).
  • All other panels:  Annual mean precipitation rate climatology (mm/day) simulated by individual models.
The observational estimates are from Xie and Arkin (1997) for the period 1979-1993, and the model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.8_pr.pdf

 

S3.9) Precipitation rate error maps in support of Figure 8.3.4:
Each page shows:
  • Upper left panel:  Observed annual-mean precipitation rate climatology (mm/day).
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean error (mm/day), simulated minus observed.
  • Upper right panel:  Root-mean-square model error (mm/day), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
  • All other panels:  Individual model errors (mm/day), simulated minus observed.
The observational estimates are from Xie and Arkin (1997) for the period 1979-1993, and the model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.9_pr_diff.pdf

 

S3.10) Time-mean of the zonally-averaged precipitation rate.  The observational estimates are from Xie and Arkin (1997) for the period 1979-1993, and the model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.10_pr_full_spaghetti.pdf

 

S3.11) Specific humidity cross-sections:
Each page shows:
  • Upper left panel:  Observed annual mean specific humidity climatology (g/kg), averaged zonally.
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean fractional error, expressed as a percent (i.e., simulated minus observed, divided by observed and multiplied by 100). 
  • Upper right panel:  Root-mean-square model fractional error, expressed as a percent, based on all available IPCC model simulations.
  • All other panels:  Individual model errors, expressed as a percent (i.e., simulated minus observed, divided by observed and multiplied by 100).
The observational estimate is from the 40-year European Reanalysis (ERA40, Uppala et al., 2005) based on observations over the period 1980-1999.  The model results are from the same period of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.11_hus_pctdiff.pdf

 

S3.12) Annual mean, zonally averaged, total surface heat flux into the oceans. The observational estimates are from da Silva (1994) and are based on COADS observations over the period 1945-1989. The model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.12_hfns_full_spaghetti_ocn.pdf

 

S3.13) Annual mean net rate of fresh water into the ocean from: 1) the atmosphere (i.e., precipitation minus evaporation), 2) runoff at continental margins, and 3) any net flux due to imbalances in the freezing and melting of sea ice.  Land areas are ignored in computing the zonal means. Model results are from the years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.13_wfo_full_spaghetti_ocn.pdf

 

S3.14) Annual mean, zonally averaged implied fresh water transport by the world's oceans. The model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.14_trans_ocean_water.pdf

 

S3.15) Observed and simulated annual cycle amplitude of the zonally integrated ocean heat content. The ocean heat is integrated over the surface layer extending to a depth of 250 m.  The observed climatology is from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA04) compiled by Levitus, et al. (2005). With the exception of the tropics, the simulated meridional distribution of most models is in reasonable agreement with the observed estimate. A tendency for the models to be too symmetric about the equator is apparent in many models with amplitude maxima at about 10S that is not seen in the observations. This anomalous maxima is principally associated with well known tropical biases.

File:  S8.3.15_ocean_seas_heat_a.pdf

 

S3.16 Observed and simulated annual cycle of the zonal average ocean temperature (°C) as a function of depth (m) and latitude. The observed climatology is from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA04) compiled by Levitus, et al. (2005). The WOA04 climatology is strongly asymmetric with respect to the two hemispheres, with a pronounced maximum at the surface near 40N. The corresponding mid-latitude maximum in the SH is much weaker, where most of the models have a double maxima near 60S not seen in observations. One interpretation is that the SH double maxima in the simulations is unrealistic. Another explanation is that it is physical but missing in the WOA04 owing to the paucity of observations. The tropical annual cycle of near surface temperature is relatively small compared to the mid-latitudes. However, in the depth range of 50-125m along the equator, the amplitude is larger than the near surface values. This is clearly associated with dynamical processes, not surface heating.

File:  S8.3.16_ocean_seas_heat_b.pdf

 

S3.17) Sea surface temperature maps in support of Figure 8.3.8:
Each page shows:
  • Upper left panel:  Observed annual mean sea surface temperature climatology (°C).
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean error (°C), simulated minus observed.
  • Upper right panel:  Root-mean-square model error (°C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
  • All other panels:  Individual model errors (°C), simulated minus observed.
Regions with sea ice have been masked because SST is unavailable from most models in these regions. The observations are from the HadISST SST data set for the period 1961-1990 (Rayner et al., 2003), and model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.17_ts_diff.pdf

 

S3.18) Ocean potential temperature cross-sections, zonally averaged over individual basins or over all basins, in support of Figure 8.3.9:
Each page shows:
  • Upper left panel:  Observed annual mean potential temperature climatology (°C), zonally averaged.
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean error (°C), simulated minus observed.
  • Upper right panel:  Root-mean-square model error (°C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
  • All other panels:  Individual model errors (°C), simulated minus observed.
The observations are from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus, et al. (2005) for the period 1955-1998, and model results are from years 1950-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations. The following basins were analyzed: global ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Pacific Ocean.

File:  S8.3.18_thetao_diff.pdf

 

S3.19) Annual mean, zonally averaged, sea surface salinity error (PSU), simulated minus observed. The observations are from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus, et al. (2005), and model results are from years 1950-1999 of  the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.19_so_diff_spaghetti_ocn.pdf

 

S3.20) Surface salinity maps:
Each page shows:
  • Upper left panel:  Observed annual mean surface salinity climatology (PSU).
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean error (PSU), simulated minus observed.
  • Upper right panel:  Root-mean-square model error (PSU), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
  • All other panels:  Individual model errors (PSU), simulated minus observed.
The observations are from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus, et al. (2005) for the period 1955-1998, and model results are from years 1950-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations.

File:  S8.3.20_so_diff.pdf

 

S3.21) Ocean salinity cross-sections, zonally averaged over individual basins or over all basins (but excluding inland seas and lakes):
Each page shows:
  • Upper left panel:  Observed annual mean salinity climatology (PSU), zonally averaged.
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean error (PSU), simulated minus observed.
  • Upper right panel:  Root-mean-square model error (PSU), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
  • All other panels:  Individual model errors (PSU), simulated minus observed.
The observations are from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus, et al. (2005) for the period 1955-1998, and model results are from years 1950-1999 of the CMIP 20th Century simulations. The following basins were analyzed: global ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Pacific Ocean.

File:  S8.3.21_so_diff.pdf

 

S3.22) Ocean meridional overturning streamfunction for individual basins or for all basins, in support of Figure 8.3.10:
Each page shows:
  • Upper center panel:  Multi-model mean simulation of the ocean meridional overturning streamfunction (Sv).
  • All other panels:  Individual model simulations of the ocean meridional overturning streamfunction (Sv).
Positive values (brown colors) imply subsidence on the northern side, southward flow below, and ascending water to the south. The flow is in the opposite sense around negative values (blue colors). The following basins were analyzed: global ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Pacific Ocean.

File:  S8.3.22_stfmmc.pdf

 

S3.23) Changes in precipitation statistics for nineteen individual models (and the composite median field derived from the multi-model ensemble). The statistics are the same as those in figure 8.3.29 and are defined in the text. The observations are from Xie and Arkin (1997).

File:  S8.3.23_pr_clim_seas_glb.pdf