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Tables and Figures available here provide supplementary material for Chapter 11 of the second
draft of the Working Group I contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report.
Table S11.1 Boundaries for the regions assessed in this chapter
File: Table-S11.1.pdf
Table S11.2 Surface air temperature and precipitation bias of present day AR4
simulations, using the 1980-1999 period of the 20C3M simulations and comparing to HadCRUT2v
(Jones, et. al., 2001) for temperature and and Xie and Arkin (1998) for precipitation.
Temperature is in degrees Celsius, while precipitation values are fractional biases. Shown are
the minimum median (50%) and maximum biases among the models, as well as the 25% and 75% quartile
values. Colors indicate regions/seasons for which the middle half of the distribution is all of
one sign, with light blue indicating positive and light brown negative precipitation biases.
File: Table-S11.2.pdf
Table S11.3 Quantiles (percentiles) of changes in climate based on probability
densities developed according to Tebaldi et al. (2004, 2005), for the A1B scenario (see section
11.2.2 for a description of the method). The changes are calculated as the end of the twenty
first century minus the end of the 20th century for temperature, and as percentage change 21st
century - 20th century/20th century for precipitation. Temperature change is in °C, and
precipitation is percentage change. *SEU (southern Europe) corresponds to the area
referred to as MED on the maps showing the quantiles (Figure 11.2.1 and Supplementary material
Figures S11.2.1 and S11.2.2
File: Table-S11.3.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.2.1 Quantiles of regional probability distributions derived by
Greene et al. (2006) (top bar), Tebaldi et al. (2005) (bottom), and the empirical distribution of the
AOGCM responses (middle bar) for temperature change in JJA under the A2 emissions scenario, at
the end of the 21st century. Color bars indicate the 5–95% confidence interval. Lines
through bars indicate the 25th, 50th, 75th, quantiles.
File: S11.2.1.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.2.2 Quantiles of regional probability distributions derived by
Tebaldi et al. (2004a) (top bar), and the empirical distribution of the AOGCM responses (bottom
bar) for percentual precipitation change in DJF under the A2 emissions scenario, at the end of
the 21st century. Color bars indicate the 5–95% confidence interval. Lines through bars
indicate the 25th, 50th, 75th, quantiles.
File: S11.2.2.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.2.3 Quantiles of regional probability distributions derived by
Tebaldi et al. (2004a) (top bar), and the empirical distribution of the AOGCM responses (bottom
bar) for percentual precipitation change in JJA under the A2 emissions scenario, at the end of
the 21st century. Color bars indicate the 5–95% confidence interval. Lines through bars
indicate the 25th, 50th, 75th, quantiles.
File: S11.2.3.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.2.4 Results from the perturbed physics ensemble of Harris et al.
(2006) showing evolution in the median, and 80%, 90%, and 95% confidence ranges for annual surface
temperature change, for a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentration for 150 years, for all 24
regions described by Giorgi and Francisco (2000).
File: S11.2.4.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.2.5 Results from the perturbed physics ensemble of Harris et al.
(2006) showing evolution in the median, and 80%, 90%, and 95% confidence ranges for
December-January-February precipitation change, for a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentration
for 150 years, for all 24 regions described by Giorgi and Francisco (2000).
File: S11.2.5.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.1.1 For each of 6 continental regions, the number of models out
of (21) that project increases in precipitation contrasted with the number that predict increases
in precipitation minus evaporation, between the period 1980-1999 in the 20C3M simulations and the
period 2080-2099 in the A1B scenario
File: S11.3.1.1.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.1.2 The ratio of the ensemble mean and annual mean temperature
responses A2/A1B and B1/A1B, at each point of a 64 x 128 grid, using 21 models in the AR4/PCMDI
archive, for the years (2080-2099 minus 1980-1999).
File: S11.3.1.2.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.1.3 As in S11.3.1.2, but for Dec-Jan-Feb.
File: S11.3.1.3.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.1.4 As in S11.3.1.2, but for Jun-Jul-Aug.
File: S11.3.1.4.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.2.1 Mean bias averaged over 21 AR4 models in annual mean African
precipitation. Data(CMAP) are an update of Xie and Arking (1997). Models are averaged over the
years 1980-1999 from the 20C3M simulations.
File: S11.3.2.1.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.2.2 The annual mean precipitation response in 21 AR4 models. Shown
is the fractional change in precipitation between the years 1980-1999 of the 20C3M simulations and
2080-2099 of the A1B scenario, averaging over all available realizations for each model. Brown
indicates a reduction in precipitation and green an increase. The fractional change in the
precipitation averaged over all models is shown in the lower right hand corner.
File: S11.3.2.2.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.6.1: AR4 Ensemble annual mean surface air temperatures compared
with observation. a) observed from Jones, et al., (2001); b) model mean; c) model mean bias.
Units °C.
File: S11.3.6.1.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.6.2 As Suppl. Fig. S11.3.6.1, but for precipitation.
Observations (CMAP) from Xie and Arkin (1998). Units mm/day.
File: S11.3.6.2.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.8.1 Annual surface air temperature change from 1979–1998
to 2079–2098 in the Arctic under the A1B scenario. Top: mean response, averaged over 21
AR4 models, middle and bottom: number of AR4 models that generate a warming greater than
2°C and 4°C, respectively.
File: S11.3.8.1.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.8.2 Maps of the annual surface air temperature changes in the
Arctic at the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) under A1B scenario from the 21 individual AR4
models, using 1980-1999 from the 20C3M simulations as control.
File: S11.3.8.2.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.8.3 Mean annual percentage precipitation change (averaged over
21 AR4 models) from 1979–1998 to 2079–2098 in the Arctic under the A1B scenario.
File: S11.3.8.3.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.8.4 Annual cycle of monthly mean Antarctic temperature and percentage
precipitation changes (averaged over the Antarctic continent) for 2079–2098 minus
1979–1998, under the A1B scenario. Thick lines represent the ensemble mean, averaged over
21 AR4 models. The dark grey area represents the ±one standard deviation across the
different models, while the light grey area shows the total range of the models.
File: S11.3.8.4.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.8.5 Panel with the geographical maps of the annual surface
temperature changes in the Antarctic at the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) under A1B
scenario from the 21 individual AR4 models, using 1980-1999 from the 20C3M simulations as
control.
File: S11.3.8.5.pdf
Suppl. Figure S11.3.8.6 Mean annual percentage precipitation change (averaged over
21 AR4 models) from 1979–1998 to 2079–2098 in the Antarctic under the A1B scenario.
File: S11.3.8.6.pdf
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